Mystery Box Percentage


#1

There are so many videos and stories of people getting screwed by the mystery boxes, even if they have spent thousands of gold on them. Here is a possible solution that will try not to take money away from Deca while still increasing the chance for people to get the jackpot.
In some games, mostly f2p, there is a mechanic where the percentage increases after a certain amount of times you roll the mystery box or the loot box or whatever. Take the always-present ambrosia box for example.


There are 9 possibilities, so let’s separate them into two halves: from 5 ambrosia to 1 ambrosia, then from taco to cookie (assuming that they are in order from rarest to most common from top to bottom). Here’s the idea: after 10 rolls (can be 5 or some other number), the possibility for each item in the latter half decreases by 0.25% and the possibility for each item in the top half increases by 0.25% (these numbers are still arbitrary so don’t pay attention to those specifically). The chance for the middle item, the cheeseburger, wouldn’t ever change. You don’t have to roll 10 at a time: it’s a cumulative 10 rolls, or whatever number. If you do roll an item in the top half, then your percentage resets to default. But, if you’re rolling 10 at a time and you have a high percentage already, your percentage doesn’t reset until that 10 roll ends, so it could be more profitable to roll 10 at higher percents.

This way, after spending more gold, there would be a much higher chance of getting better items, and there is also a higher incentive on spending more money on gold when you do have that high percentage. Of course, there’s the chance that your percentage gets reset by fries, which would suck, but I’m trying not to make it totally in our favor.

It is a little bit complicated, and perhaps not worth the time for developers to set it up for each individual box and make new percentages every single time, while still keeping us informed. Obviously this method of putting it in halves wouldn’t work for all mystery boxes; maybe a scaling percentage would work better, but I’m not sure.

Another problem is that the percentages are obviously not public, and there is no real way for players to tell whether or not this would actually happen. I don’t think, if implemented, that Deca would lie about it though.

Good idea? Based it off of gacha games, of course, though it’s slightly different.


#2

Yea, something like FE heroes. Or even better; make the cursed skins/jackpots purchasable individually on a steeper price compared to the box.


#3

A bunch of blue stars would be running around with their 30 dollar dragon tamer warrior sets smh


#4

Well taking FE heroes as an example, there’s a reason they don’t allow orbs to directly buy 5 star focus heroes; I don’t think making the jackpots purchasable would be a good idea either.


#5

It’s actually quite an interesting theory for mystery boxes. Good effort with your hypothesis.


#6

@PLEBJESUS I think I missed your point. Would you kindly clarify your statement please?

@Awsomaws for the sake of discussion, could you tell us why? I’m assuming for balancing reasons. However, most of the time, jackpot rewards are either skins which does not affect gameplay whatsoever, or pet feed or vault box or character slot, which you can buy directly already


#7

I think you’re forgetting about the packages. If you wanted to make the jackpot to mystery boxes purchasable, you could just make it a separate purchasable package instead of making it a mystery box, and I don’t think that they should be the same items. They both exist for a reason, and making one more similar to the other wouldn’t be very beneficial, I think. One is gambling, one is not, and I think they should coexist that way without being combined together.


#8

Well, I’m just saying why not both? More choices for us isn’t it?

Perhaps I should know of this reason… Sorry for my limited foresight


#9

Yeah I guess that having a set percentage increase would mean that it would have more of an incentive.


#10

You said jackpots should be purchasable and that’s exactly what would happen.


#11

I mean if Deca said pay 100 bucks for a jackpot, I would do it, because it is 100% chance. However, if I was told spend $100 for 0.1% of chance to win a jackpot, obviously I ain’t gonna do it.


#12

Woah some FE Heroes content being thrown around
@SoloSen

Well, Hero Fest, Legendary Banners, and the purchable Black Knight is close enough

I think the idea is good, but then if they did add this, how much money would DECA lose?


#13

Well I hope that they wouldn’t lose any money at all cause more people would want to buy gold for mystery boxes if they had a better chance right? That’s the ideal anyway; make it slightly less luck based and make a large amount of gold actually worthwhile, ripping off less people.

Of course you could have mystery boxes like the hero fest too when the percentage is higher, though perhaps Deca would lose money from that.

I do think if jackpots were purchasable, Deca would lose money. They make money from both mystery boxes and packages, and combining them would make less people buy stuff.

The point of mystery boxes is getting that prize, like getting a white bag, pretty much just as rare too. It’s the rush from getting the jackpot or wanting to get the jackpot that causes people to buy it. Making jackpots purchasable would be like the first time when tops became purchasable; it just seems cheap and there’s not as much of an incentive. You buy it, you got the rare item, you’re done. The reason people want to buy packages is because it’s a deal including things that aren’t as rare but you save gold (not too sure about this but I’m pretty sure).

Sure, I guess the idea does have its merits, but I would rather have the original idea of percentage increase. Making jackpots purchasable can be a separate topic.


#14

My dude, I need Soren. I don’t care about Winter Tharja or the new Ike much. I just need Soren again. xD


#15

Lol I have 3 4 star sorens, I want the new Robin he looks awesome and has vengeful fighter.
why has this become about fire emblem heroes


#16

Right now, Soren and G!Robin are the only units I really need/want. Green tacticians.

I want Soren because I want him to be my main green tome. Deirdre, Rhajat, Merric, Cecilia and Julia just don’t do it for me…

As for G!Robin, he reminds me a lot of Ryner Lute from Denyuuden while berserk on Alpha Stigma, and I’ve wanted to build a dragon/beast unit for a while now…

Was thinking of building F!Corrin but G!Robin just took the cake–no, he fucking destroyed the cake. Wish me luck with summons? :cake:

Idfk, Fire Emblem Heroes is everywhere on this forum now. I don’t mind though! Haha


#17

My main green tome has and always will be Nino; hard to go wrong with Nino + Ephraim (or Eirika) + dancer. And yeah good luck with G!Robin, for both of us; hopefully 100 orbs will be enough.

As for a blue dragon, I think Nowi/Ninian are both better than F!Corrin, either with Lightning/Steady breath or with Dark Breath + DC; helps that I have both. I guess you like tacticians though, F!Corrin would make sense.


#18

100 orbs? I’m free to play lol, orbs are expensive to buy. I just use what I get in game.

Although Nowi and Ninian are supposedly better than Corrin, I think using underrated units that you like are better. Of course if I got G!Robin I’d abandon the Corrin project… But Raigh, Berkut, and Lucius are only a few among my best units. Screw what the meta likes.

Tacticians are great.


#19

Yeah I meant 100 f2p orbs that I have saved up, cause I don’t want to buy any more; got baited by the first hero fest so i’m only mostly f2p.

And haha I’m like the opposite, DC Ayra/B!Lyn are my best. I don’t know how anyone uses Berkut (though his voice acting is great), if I got him to five star it would be to inherit his lance. Idk about Raigh, but Lucius can definitely be a good unit with weapon refinery. Personally I stick with Elise for the healer.

To me, dancers are great.


#20

Never had a dancer, and one of my friends who uses a Narcian with three lolis told me they’re overrated so whatever.

I fixed Berkut’s speed so he’s one of my best units now. Fury 3 is nice because of his high hp but I’m tempted to get LnD eventually… Though if I got desperation fury 3 should be kept.

Raigh instakills every horse he sees, what’s crazier is that he was the starter Raigh and I made him 5 stars. Neutral IVs. He’s my boy.

Lucius is basically a glass cannon but he can heal Lord Raven and others. Master of AoE damage, and tanks every mage in the game that isn’t using a raven tome build.

But unfortunately, I have no orbs saved like you do :disappointed: I may get lucky here and there with summons but it only goes so far. (Gunnthra, 2 B!Ikes, etc.)