@Unicorn’s recent question in the “Statistical Analysis…” thread inspired me.
Edit (2019/01/10): Ignore the equation in this post, there’s an update below that simplifies things!
More soon, but here’s a teaser:
[Buckle your seatbelts, folks, OtherBill is getting mathy again! OB]
Yesss, I’ll actually try to make sense of this when you finish because I’m studying this stuff, I should probably learn how it works ;). Thanks OB!
This is like something I’d do when I have a test within a week’s time.
Hmmm, wait, hang on
I was able to simplify things! This is getting pretty elegant!
p(h) and P(l,Δh) have some pretty easy lookup tables. The rest is easily spreadsheet-able.
If you want a ±0 HP roll at level 20, you should give up and reroll early if your HP drops below:
| Level | Roll |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 |
| 5 | -1 |
| 6 | -1 |
| 7 | -1 |
| 8 | -2 |
| 9 | -2 |
| 10 | -3 |
| 11 | -3 |
| 12 | -4 |
| 13 | -4 |
| 14 | -5 |
| 15 | -5 |
| 16 | -6 |
| 17 | -6 |
| 18 | -6 |
| 19 | -5 |
(This is just the raw data. Analysis/explanation will come later.)
[Analysis/explanation will come later. OB]
Triangle’s called “delta”, in math means “change in”. In this case “change in hp”, since we want to know how much the hp roll can be improved by at level 20.
Edit: @RAILGUNMAN
OB’s words:
Did you consider the fact that XP gained from killing a mob is capped at 10% of the total XP for the next level?
I always think it’s kinda too theoretical to consider HP in isolation: if we take mana worth at (approx) 4:1 with life, and you are going 8/8, every -5 on your HP can be offset by a +20 in mana. Similar with rainbows, a good roll on other stats ameliorates a slightly bad HP roll. Or the opposite situation! and bad other stats drag down what looks like an okay/average roll.
True, but if you’re going to 8/8 a character, Life pots will be the overwhelming expense, especially with Mana being as cheap as it is.
Regardless, I just threw up (-bleah!-) a bunch of posts about it over here: This Is How We Roll: Decision-Making While Rolling, so feel free to continue the conversation over there.
