This Is How We Roll: Decision-Making While Rolling

[Toastrz]

Reading this took me back to the days of the old forums where your pet ability analysis was pinned for all eternity. Very well done.

Heh. I’m actually a mod on r/RotMG, but the site is blocked by my workplace firewall so I’m hardly ever there. Feel free to link to it if you’d like (and give credit to u/otherbill, of course).

Don’t worry, you’re still more active than Walorus.

[Zxcv]

And that zxcv_rotmg guy…

Great post OB!

[Mucalpha]

does this mean I was hecca lucky with my +40 first samurai roll?
also cool
This has so many other variables depending on the player _{reeeeeeee
sounds fun
I only care about hp}

[ThatsMyJam]

XP(n) = 50 n2 - 100 n + 50 or = 50 (n-1)2

From this, we can define P(ΔHP,n) as the probability that our character’s HP roll will increase by at least ΔHP between Level n and Level 20.

XP cost to keep going = q (XP(20) - XP(n)) + (1-q) (XP(20) - XP(n) + XP(20)/p)

[DivineOryx]

XD who else skipped the whole thing just to see how long it was.

[TheIvyX]

fuck the horrors of prob and stat class are flooding back now

[Cripwallah]

y’all hear sumn?

[OtherBill]

y’all hear sumn?

Okay, that warrants a …and a trip straight to the Level 20 probability tables.

[Barnette]

I see that they just released an 8 pack of these in the store (packages tab). With XP boosters helping to fasten the pace of leveling it barely seems worth even the discounted cost.

Historically, I have used the three times and have always received a 0 or positive hp/no roll, but that is not statistically sound. Has anyone used them and recieved a negative roll?

[Samcw]

You’re welcome to stop and check your roll at every point. It might get tedious, but that can be useful at times.

Sorry I missed the assumption that you only check the roll once.

[Josias]

I think I used two of them and once rolled 0 and the other time -8 iirc.

[Seelpit]

Has anyone used them and recieved a negative roll?

From my Sorc, that I used it on:

I could probably put the other one I got (from the Oryxmas Mystery Gift) on my Samurai and see what I get.

[Laserquest]

A player still needs to ‘somehow’ osmosis that +25 is the key to knowing if your HP gain is good or bad upon level-up (& +10 for MP), for a wizard.

i have an idea!
if the roll was above average, the stats would be in a green color, like this:+30 HP
if the roll was below average, the stats would be in a red color, like this:+20 HP
this could only be applicable to the hp and mp stats, or it could be added to every stat.

[Unicorn]

Or just have something track the roll progress and give you the equivalent of /tell MrEyeball stats.

Honestly I’m so bad at remembering stuff, keeping track of 9 lvl ups and their respective changes to the roll is too challenging ;-;. Especially when I use my extraordinarily big brain to compute 2 + 2 = 5

[Seelpit]

So, something along the lines of…

Options -> General -> Show stat incr. on level up

As well as

Command: /stats - Shows the difference in stats compared to average stats at that level

Well, that’s just your thoughts translated into my thoughts, translated into my words. Sort of.

[Awdreg]

Each of those will cost 18,050 XP.

Wait… this is not necessarily true if you stop early

Edit: Also how did you create the cumulative Q probabilities table? I’m guessing a Mathematica program to do all the generating functions for you? Or did you manually sum them all up lol

Edit 2: Oh oops sniped by Mynamerr

[Awdreg]

So, given a desired final roll of h , we can define p as the percentile rank of that roll at Level 20. This sheet serves as a lookup table for those values.

… rank of that roll or better

[OtherBill]

this is not necessarily true if you stop early

No, it’s not, but the math gets all ugly and recursive when you begin to take that into account. Simply taking this one decision into account, on its own, in a relative vacuum, makes things a bit simpler. I do plan on addressing this, however.

 

Also how did you create the cumulative Q probabilities table?

Excel. It hardly took any time at all. Once I share the spreadsheet things should be much more apparent.

 

… rank of that roll or better

That kind of goes without saying, of course. Still, is what “percentile rank” means, good sir.

[Chennitoa]

I got a -1 hp on my knight, have to drink an extra life pot now. rip

[Starwartwo]

Wow. Wtf. So much math. Why and what.

_{what job do you have if you don’t mind me asking}