Drop rates?

#1

what is the drop rate of each ut and st s aswell (every single one)

#2

you won’t get specific values, it’s all guesswork

#3

Drop rates have never been released. I believe we used to know them back in the Wild Shadow era, but that was quite a while ago.

It is generally estimated that the rarer UTs (Ogmur, Conflict) are somewhere around 1/400, Jugg/Venom/Oreo around 1/250, and Ray around 1/150. Or at least those are the numbers I recall.

Before a recent patch, Bulwark was estimated to be around 1/1200, making it perhaps the most rare item in the game. However, that has now been brought much more in line with other dungeon UTs (maybe 1/80 or so). As said above, the numbers are all guesswork.

#4

Actual drop rates are unknown, but below is my guess. (Based on my own experiences in playing the game, and what I think is common/uncommon.) Although I have yet to obtain some of the listed items.

UT Drops

1/3 – Poison Fang Dagger, Candy Ring

1/5 – St. Abraham’s Wand, Snake Skin Shield, Fairy Ring, Ring of Divine Faith

1/10 – Experimental Ring, Bone Dagger, Woodland Robe, Captain’s Ring, Coral Ring

1/20 – Cloak of the Planewalker, Staff of Extreme Prejudice, Spectral Cloth Armor

1/50 – Coral Bow, Crystal Wand, Crystal Sword, Conducting Wand, Robe of the Mad Scientist, Candy-Coated Armor, Beehemoth Armor

1/80 – Doom Bow, Demon Blade, Coral Venom Trap, Scepter of Fulmination, Ancient Stone Sword, Pirate King’s Cutlass, Spirit Dagger, Ring of the Pyramid, Ring of the Nile, Ring of the Sphinx, Tlatoani’s Shroud

1/100 – Staff of Esben, Wand of the Bulwark, Corruption Cutter, Leaf Bow, Wakizashi of Eastern Winds, Thousand Shot, Tezcacoatl’s Tai, Wand of the Fallen, Doku no Ken, Murky Toxin, Void Blade, Tome of Holy Protection, Harlequin Armor, Prism of Dancing Swords

1/120 – Water Dragon Silk Robe, Fire Dragon Battle Armor, Leaf Hide Armor, Celestial Blade, Fungal Breastplate, Bloodshed Ring, Sword of the Colossus, Marble Seal, Breatsplate of New Life, Magical Lodestone, Staff of Unholy Sacrifice, Skull of Corrupted Souls, Ritual Robe, Recurring Terror Spell, Tome of Pain, Scepter of Devastation, Hivemaster’s Helm, Plague Poison, Resurrected Warrior’s Armor, Bracer of the Guardian, Skull of Endless Torment, Wakizashi of Crossing Fires

1/150 – Ray Katana, Twilight Gemstone

1/200 – The Forgotten Crown, Omnipotence Ring, Crystal Fang Venom, Seal of Blasphemous Prayer

1/300 – Cloak of Bloody Surprises, Quiver of Thunder, Tablet of the Forgotten King

1/400 – Shield of Ogmur, Helm of the Juggernaut, Orb of Conflict

ST Drops

1/80 – Edictum Praetoris, Memento Mori, Toga Picta, Interregnum

1/100 – Ancient Spell: Pierce,

1/150 – Carved Golem Remains, Etherite Dagger, The Phylactery, Soul of the Bearer, Soulless Robe

1/200 – Pixie-Enchanted Sword, Fairy Plate

I believe that a lot of the ST drops are rarer than standard white bag items because, since they drop from normal enemies that appear multiple times per dungeon, the chances of obtaining them increases greatly. To balance this out, a lower drop rate is needed. This is especially true for Candyland STs because bosses spawn infinitely.

NOTE: A lot of stuff are missing. Again, these are all based on my own experiences and thoughts, so a good portion may be wrong.

#5

It’s all guess really and trying to do them all would take a lot of time but I think most of the whites in the game are about 1/50 or 1/30 somewhere around there

#6

One sentence: Actual current drop rates are undisclosed.

DECA said the reason why is to prevent players to get agitated while farming ST/UTs. 1/50 chance of CBow does not mean after each 50 successful OT raid, you will get the bow.

It just mean within that 50 successful raids, there is a chance of getting CBow.

#7

Not that there’s a chance of getting one after doing 50 ots just that each ot has a 1/50 chance of rolling on that drop

#8

I mean, what even is that logic?
I still firmly believe they have no real reason to hide drop rates. It just makes it worse to us. Just let us decide what we think is worth farming or not. It’s not game breaking.

#9

I think it’s in part to prevent issues with players who don’t understand how probabilities work, and who assume that they are entitled to their UT of choice in the given number of runs.

They don’t want people pissed off that they didn’t get their 1/80 white bag after 81 runs, for instance; the player base gets excited enough without keeping a clear count of dungeons ran, and what they are entitled to.

To be clear, I’m not justifying the lack of published drop rates, just explaining a possible reason for why they aren’t public.

#10

Makes sense to me. Especially since I think most people that play are younger. Kinda annoying sometimes when you’re grinding items for hours/days but it is what it is

#11

I’ve read that reasoning dozens of times before but it still doesn’t make sense.

The few people who don’t know how probability works and complain as you describe, will just get told by everyone that’s not how it works.

I don’t see how that’s a problem or how that impacts DECA or the game negatively at all.

#12

This is wrong, I know it’s the public reason Deca gave but the real reason is so they can change drop rates whenever they feel like it and not tell anyone.

#13

So ye, Ill update this list in time, just write me down all of known Kabam era UTs (I only remember this ones, event UT drop rate may differ from actual one’s because it’s hard to make actual statistics about them), (whole statistics where made of more than 50 UTs drops, except event whites):
Demon Blade: 1/260
Planewalker: 1/220
EP: 1/150
Bulwark: 1/850 - may differ from actual ones: deca probably changed it (14 drops where counted)
Leaf Bow: 1/220
Spirit Dagger: 1/310
CDirk: 1/1190 (may differ, only 6 drops per 7184 CGods where counted)
DBow: 1/210
CBow: 1/270
Esben Staff: 1/130
CWand: 1/110
Conducting: 1/140
CSword: 1/80
Cutlass: 1/180 (may vary from actual ones; deca probably changed them - from my own statistics it is 1/120 now)
ASS: 1/130 or 1/260 (2 guards per castle)
Ray Katana: 1/220 (may vary; 28 drops counted per 6180 eyes)
Celestial aka Annoying Firecracker Katana - 1/160 (may vary from actual ones; it is different item now so deca probably changed it)
Doku - 1/120
QoT - 1/300 (that is the Ent count - not Natura Sprites or how theyre called - most of them were buffed to the endline - 9 sprite pop; may differ because only 16 qots where dropped)
Tablet - 1/360 (may vary; 22 drop where counted [4 of them were mine c:])
Prot: 1/180
Puri: 1/260 (may vary; 38 drops per 9947 manors)
Jugg: those are different, depends on GSphinx/Hermit - GSphinx: 1/830 (8 drops counted, 3 of them were mine :slight_smile:) Hermit: 1/380 (One hermit tentacle is 1 drop state - same as Pentaract so its more like 1/380 x 8)
Ogmur: 1/780 (may vary; only 4 ogmur drops were counted, sadly)
Oreo: 1/180 (may vary: 32 drops were counted; actual one is 180 x 5 [each tower is one drop state])
Plague: 1/280 (for me its 1/1200; only Skulds were counted!!!; only 36 drops were counted)
Esben skull: 1/190
Skull of Endless Torment: 1/320 (may differ; only 18 drops were counted)
CTrap: 1/120, actual one is same as CBow (deca changed it, and posted a post at Reddit in 2017)
Conflict: 1/370 (may vary; only 11 drops were counted)
Dancing prism: 1/140 (both trooms and puppet masters were counted)
Ghostly prism: 1/220
Fulmi: 1/240
Midnight star: 1/280 (may vary; only 43 drops were counted)
Leaf armor: 1/120 (may vary from actual ones)
Harlequin: 1/180 (both trooms and puppet masters were counted)
Water robe: 1/140 (may vary from actual ones)
MRobe: 1/180
CC: 1/110
Fire armor: 1/140
Resu: 1/280 (may vary; only 28 drops were counted)
Bracer: 1/300 (may differ; only 38 drops were counted, completed guardians not dungeons were counted)
Gem: 1/260 (may differ; 46 drops were counted, completed archmages not dungeons were counted)
Crown: 1/360 (may differ; 27 drops were counted)
Sphinx: 1/120
Nile: 1/140
Pyra: 1/140

Have in mind that those statistics were calculated by players; they’re not actual drop rates. All statistics were counted by group of 40 players through 2013-2015. (Except event whites [not including cwand/csword])

#14

Do you have a citation for this (especially so people can see exactly how the statistics were calculated? some of those sample sizes are incredibly small for example and honestly I would not have included those if only that many samples were collected, especially for event whites)

Anyways, so far I don’t really know of any successful organized efforts to collect data of drop rates, other than there was that one wlab chest event that someone made a neat pie chart for on reddit and someone else managed to kill 1000 lib minions while recording all data from that, and I do think 1000 is a decent sample size.

Personally, I do think that the drop rates should be revealed because this decision shouldn’t be made over “oh, well there’s some people who don’t know a thing about stats who will get upset”. Might as well not make any video game, since there’s some people who aren’t adept at controls in a video game who would get upset over the controls.
To bring in another game as an example, Terraria has had the drop rates on the wiki (admittingly, would have been datamined from the game) for a very long time and with the recent 1.4 update, those drop rates are now even visible in-game. It doesn’t have any more people complaining about the drop rates than any other game, even though some of the drop rates probably put RotMG to shame, though I could be wrong.
So for RotMG to not have public drop rates just because “some people will be upset” seems like a very strange excuse to me.

#15

Those were private statistics - if you are curious how we got that statistics - mayby you know thing called RealmBot (it was removed after deca came, it have been used for farming event whites, just get bunch of people into guild and start farming :slight_smile: )
Of course I do not have most of screens because that would be absurdly difficult to store - you can belive me or not.
2. - I have 2 reasons why Deca haven’t published droprates to game - as some1 said, those would only agitate players - For sure as me, when I was farming cube gods - in whole of my life done ~2k of them, and have got 2 cdirks. That’s pretty low. 2nd reason is that some1 could change the code of the game to dupe items.

#16

I do usually prefer to stick to the official narrative regarding such matters (the player-generated interpretations of DECA’s motives often involve too much tinfoil hat stuff for me), though I do recognize that in this scenario, the reason you put forward does hold a bit more water than most of these other interpretations. This is especially true when we look at such case studies as the legendary Ice Cave Ogmur event, when the drop rates were apparently drastically lowered without warning after just a couple hours, though iirc, DECA never officially confirmed that this was the case, which seems a little shady.

And to keep things straight, I am not arguing against publicizing drop rates-- I would love to see those available to the public!

#17

I wish I knew man, I wish I knew

#18

Also remember “3x or 1,5x or 2x event white drop rate buff” :slight_smile:

#19

if bulwark was 1/1200 how did i manage to get 2 back to back before the drop rate buff

#20

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