One method to price/value white bags

#9

This… this isn’t exactly what I expected but it was impressive, good on you lol.

#10

Thank you, thank you. I kind of assume that the people that play this game don’t pay any attention to the logic behind it. It’s always nice to find someone that can at least hold an intellectual conversation about its workings.

Well, duping and a bunch of other factors that I listed. Over any sensible period of time, the price should always be below 7.5L, since if it goes any higher than that, people could just go farm one in the time that it took them to get the 7.5L. Note that it IS possible for the market price to temporarily go over this figure, but just because market price goes over 7.5 does not mean that you should pay it, as that would be against your best interests.

Another interesting reason that the price would be much lower than the calculated maximum is the effect of only having 8 inventory spaces. Most people don’t want to trade via multiple inventories, as that requires some trust or forethought. This is the reason that many skin prices never exceed 8L. It is true that some of them due, since skins are primarily traded for ubhps, but the majority of skins stay at or below 8L, because people can’t pay more than 8 pure in 1 inventory. I suspect that the actual market price without the inventory limit (pre-deca making most tradable skins purchasable for gold) is much closer to 12L.

This would be an example of what is called a supply shock, which is where there is an unnatural surge of products being sold at once. Basically, if there are a lot of goods being sold, sellers have to compete to deliver the lowest price, since few people want to overpay for a product. This leads to a reduction in the price of the good being sold.
Consequently, due to the lower price, more buyers are able to afford the product, so more of them purchase it.

In economics, this is akin to shifting the supply curve to the right, which decreases the price, but also increases the quantity sold.

Thank you, thank you. With respect to your question on the other topic “now closed,” we were discussing the best class for getting SB in void or LH. I told you that I prefer a 3/8 huntress with dbow, ctrap, hydra, and an exahp with maxed spd, atk, and dex.

To 3/8 the huntress, you will need 34 atk, 19 spd, and 19 dex. This equates to 6.625L. Assume the dbow is worth 7.5L (maximum price), hydra is 0.5L, and the exahp is 1L. Now for me personally, I like to use ctrap since I have a ton of them, many more than I need. As such, I value the trap at 0L, since I could care less if I lose it or not. You don’t have to use a ctrap. Any trap will do, so for the sake of the argument, i’ll say the trap is worth 0L. This means that my 3/8 huntress with said gear is worth a MAXIMUM of 15.625L.

Assuming you score an average of 1.5L from each halls run, which is pretty reasonable, you would break even in 10 runs. Again, this is assuming that you are paying the maximum price for dbow, and your atk, spd, and dex rolls are average. This also excludes the value that you would gain from any white bags, (1 white alone is probably worth the 15L, if not more) and also the t14 tops (again, worth quite a bit of life, probably ~6L each).

All in all, dying once every 10 runs is pretty reasonable for unmaxed hp and defense, and you should pull more than enough loot to make it well worth the effort.

#11

I hate math but I like this

#12

It’s called applied mathematics, too bad school is busy trying to drown you in theoretics

#13

It’s hard to teach people how to think. It’s much easier to teach them how to regurgitate information. That’s why we have the education system that we have.

#14

Yup, far too few intelligent people and too many too lazy to think, after all, ignorance is bliss.

#15

I’m an engineer all I use is applied mathematics. Im good at math I just don’t like it very much

In my country growing up we never learned any kind of theoretical algebra. I don’t know how about the rest of the world handles it.

Though a few years ago I have learned theoretical math in terms of sea rise and rain fall nothing wild
So it can be of some use depending on what your doing

#16

I see a few flaws in the model
a) You need to pay for the tomb keys
b) You get loot from gods while farming for the dbow
c) I think dont need a confidence interval here, its already efficent if you run more udls than it would take on average to get one.

I also think 2 minutes per udl is pretty and 16 wis per life is pretty unrealistic.

Interestic model nevertheless.

#17

It’s pretty easy to find free tombs, especially if you are in a guild.

If you are doing it right, you shouldn’t be farming the god lands at all. For example, when I hunt UDLs, I like to go to the fame train server, since the rate of UDL drop is pretty high due to all the gods that are being killed. If you try and farm UDLs yourself, it will take forever.

Simply doing 100 udls isn’t very helpful, because I find that I don’t usually get it from 100 udls. If we are calculating the theoretical maximum, we would want something that ensures we would get one - not just the mean.

Honestly, if you have ppl calling UDLs, it’s not bad at all.

Wis is 2:1 for defense. defense is 8:1 life. To be honest, I usually sell my wis 8:1 life and it works just fine, but I chose 16:1, because I don’t think many people do that.

#18

Yo IAmShuriama thats actually pretty cool

GJ

#19

Could you calculate pixie/etherite? I know you are going to get buying>farming, but I just want to see how distorted the market really is.

#20

I’m not entirely sure what the drop rates for pixie and etherite are.

Pixie would be tough, because finding a cland takes forever, so you’d have to assume you have keys. Also, since you can’t vault in between each cland, you wouldn’t really be getting that many pots from it. Plus, the amount of time that it takes to clear and get a boss varies quite a bit, and you also have to think about the drop rate of the actual boss, since I think pixie only drops from the gigacorn, which means you’re wasting your time with every other boss. I guess I would assume a drop rate of maybe 1 gigacorn per 7 mins, and that is being pretty generous. Since I don’t know the drop rate for pixie, I’m going to use the data off of here and just assume that it is the same drop rate as the respective white bag:

I’m sure this is inaccurate, but it’s the most educated guess I could make. So for pixie, I will assume 1/50 drop rate with a 7 minute interval. This equates to about 148 gigacorn kills, which is 1,036 minutes. In those clands, I will say you will bring back about 15 defense or attack pots, aka 2 life, which means:

###Pixie should be worth a MAXIMUM of 50 life.

For etherite, I will say that the drop rate is also 1/50, since i would imagine the drop rates would be about the same for a dungeon-based ST. I think that a cem takes about 10 minutes, and I tend to pull 3 rainbows from each cem that I do. 1/50 drop rate means 148 cems, which is 1,480 minutes, which is 74 tombs, which is 74 life. Since you can vault in between cems, I’ll say you pull an average of 3/16 of a life from each cem. This means that:

###Etherite is worth a MAXIMUM of 46.25 life.

It should be noted that if we decrease the drop rate to that of plague, 1/95, we get a drastically higher number, 93.125. If we increase the time it takes to do each cem, the maximum value goes up. If we decrease the time it takes to do a tomb, the value goes up; however, if we increase the average loot we get from each tomb, the value goes down.

Essentially, you can use the following combined formula to calculate the prices:

Max Value of Item = # of dungeons to guarantee item drop * ( EVL_b * T_a / T_b - EVL_a)

where:

  • EVL_a = the average expected value of loot that you will get from your item dropping dungeon (i.e. cem or cland)
  • EVL_b = the average expected value of loot that you will get from your baseline dungeon (i.e. tomb)
  • T_a = the average time it takes to complete your item dropping dungeon
  • T_b = the average time it takes to complete your baseline dungeon

Remember again, that this only an indicator of max price, not an indicator of the actual market value. It is just the market price cap.

#21

If you don’t like math, why are you in a field that uses it?

#22

cuz if hes good at it he gets paid

#23

Well, yeah, but I personally feel like one should choose a job that one will enjoy. I’m not even out of high school yet, though, so I guess my opinion doesn’t mean much.

#24

Almost every job on earth has math in it. Yes I use math. Yes I don’t really like it

But wait for this

Engineering isent sitting around doing math. (Maybe some forms are)

There are many other aspects such as design planning building advising and more.

I don’t plan on committing jihad against math it’s just I dont wake up and say thank you god for all this trigonometry

#25

So, you like your job, you just don’t particularly like math? Also, there are jobs that don’t use math. You can be a historian, or a writer, or an english teacher, or a foreign language teacher, or join the military or…

Ok, you’re right, there aren’t many jobs that don’t use math. Sucks for me because I hate math. I’m good at it, but I hate it.

#26

Yes, ik people’s whose jobs is almost entirely based on math and they don’t really like it. I would say once you have been siting somewhere for over 3 hours figuring equations you won’t be enjoying yourself

But work is not paradise. Most things your getting paid for won’t be a walk in the park but you will enjoy it if you are passionate

I used math in the military because I was a combat enginner

Just be ready to use it. An employer will enjoy that you know something extra even if it is not required.

#27

Thank for your service good sir.

#28

Haha thanks I was in the Czech military not the American but still thank you

(@IAmShurima sorry we kind of took this a bit off road)