[I blame @Unicorn. OB]
(As always, feel free to skip all the math and jump straight to the analysis.)
This Is How We Roll
OtherBill, Ph.D.
15 Jan 2019
Abstract
“Rolling” is the act of creating a new Level 1 character, levelling it up to Level 20, then checking its stats (mainly its HP roll) to ensure the new character is acceptable. This thread discusses why rolling matters (or maybe why it doesn’t), then provides a mathematical analysis of the HP rolling process to determine thresholds when a player should throw out a partially-rolled character and start over.
Key Assumptions
- Only HP analysis is discussed here.
- Life pots are by far the most expensive, so maximizing a new character's HP roll is usually the most important criteria. MP rolls can matter as well (a +5HP/-20MP roll is still considered lousy), but to keep things simple, only HP rolls are discussed here. This is partially justified since Mana values seem to be particularly low at this point (2 def/att now, compared to 4 def last year) — at one point, a 10-point difference in MP was "worth" a 5-point difference in HP, but now that has crept up to a 15- or even 20-point difference in MP. This lessens the importance of the MP roll, but ultimately this is a compromise that every player will have to make for themselves.
- How you earn that XP is not discussed here.
- It takes 18,050 XP to level a new character up to Level 20 (so if you have to roll multiple characters to generate one with an acceptable roll, you'll have to earn that 18k XP multiple times). Different players will earn this XP through different methods. New players with substandard gear might chase their Quest Monsters, eventually working themselves into the godlands. Established players with old tops might find a "Sandman Convention" or other mob that will take them to Level 5 or so, then teleport to the godlands. Fancy-schmancy endgame playas who roll with UTs might simply join a fame train and leech. It's all good.
This thread is not meant to address the best way to earn this XP; instead, it will discuss decision-making methods that might minimize the XP required to generate a fresh-20 character with an acceptable roll. As long as you consistently roll all your characters using the same approach, minimizing XP required will also minimize time.
- Time spent in the nexus/vault/pet yard/etc. isn't accounted for here
- Effectively, the key assumption here is that you're always earning XP. If you spent a ton of time in the nexus equipping your new character, getting a pet, etc., that wasted time will skew things a bit.
- If you roll characters "quickly enough", most of this probably won't matter at all.
- If you hop in the ptrain and hit Level 20 in five minutes, you generally won't bother to stop and check your roll midway through. Again, this boils down to personal preference.